pick week 12/5-12/9Last week was a good week for my pick’ems, I went 75% on the weekend. It would have been a bit better if the Saints had showed up to play. Wow, that’s by far one of the worst showings from an A caliber team I’ve seen in I don’t know how long. Oh, wait, there was that Broncos embarrassment in Indy several weeks back, but even that wasn’t as bad as what the Seahawks did to the Saints. Brees might as well have had his hands literally cuffed behind his back for all the good his offensive line was doing for him. On top of that, the Seattle secondary seem to inherently know where he was going with the ball all night long. It was the kind of performance that you, as a spectator, feel embarrassed for the athletes. Enough of that junk, on to the show.
Texans at Jaguars: This should be a no brainer based on stats on both sides of the ball, but as we’ve seen in many other matchups this season stats don’t tell the whole story. The Texans should be the clear favorite and when you look at the last six games including the game vs the Jaguars less than two weeks ago they’ve been in every game only losing these games by less than a touchdown. The have what I like to refer to as the Lions syndrome; since the 2000-01 season (with the exception of this year and two seasons ago) the Lions always found a way to lose games in the final minutes. The Texans are doing the same thing this season. It seems to me their defense doesn’t understand that there are four 15 minute quarters in a football game. They play fairly solid for three, maybe three and half quarters, then it all goes out the window. The Jags, seemly the worst team in the NFL up until four weeks ago, went to Houston and didn’t exactly thump the Texans, but did get a win on the road against a division rival. The Jags are definitely playing better football over the past few weeks. I see them continuing this streak and taking the season series winning against the Texans in Jacksonville. Jaguars over Texans by 3. Colts at Bengals: The Colts offensive line is in sorry shape. This isn’t good news when you playing one of the toughest defensive lines in the league. Luck is probably going to have to do some dancing around to make things happen in this game. His first look is going to have to be to see who’s getting ready to smear and if the coast is clear then look for an open man. This isn’t going to be a pretty game for the Colts. Bengals over Colts by 8. Falcons at Packers: Since Aaron Rodgers went out with the shoulders injury the Packers have hit the skids. Matt Flynn was good once, before he was bounced around for two years from team to team, like a bad penny. Atlanta on the other hand has really sucked it up this year. They’ve allowed an average of 383 yards per game, 135 of those are rushing yards. Green Bay has averaged 130 yards rushing per game. The Packers might have a chance if they can exploit those run defense holes that the Falcons seem to have. Historically this series is tied over the past 12 years at 4-4. This game won’t be the exciting playoff game we saw in Jan of ’11 though that for sure. This match up might be lucky to see 50 total points scored. Packers over Falcons by 2. Browns at Patriots: Defensively Cleveland has the clear advantage giving up 50 fewer yards per game than the Patriots. Problem is, Tom Brady reaches into his magicians hat and pulls out a win almost every week. It doesn’t seem to matter how many points the Pats are down by, when you play the Patriots they win. The Browns would have to put 40-some points on the board in the first half to stand a chance at overcoming the ‘second half comeback’ disease of the Pats. Patriots over Browns by 7. |
Raiders at Jets: I’d like to say the Jets should win this at home but, Matt McGloin kicking it up a notch. McGloin completion percentage just keeps going up every week. His rating is fluctuating but, all QB ratings fluctuate from week to week. I look for McGloin to have another good game this week, mostly through the air since the Jets are giving up more than 250 yards in passing per game. Also Geno Smith likes to throw to the other team more so than his own receivers. Raiders over Jets by 7.
Lions at Eagles: Statistically the Lions are the better team in this match up with an average offensive output of 425 yards per game. That number might be skewed a little after the thumping they put on GB on Thanksgiving. What isn’t skewed though is more than 60 less yards the Detroit defense gives up oppose to the Eagles defense. Stafford and the Lions running-game have been a yardage conjuring machine this year. On the other side Foles has been no slouch completing 233 passes without an interception, he has broken Vicks previous record of 224. But, the Eagles defense isn’t great about keeping team to minimal yards, though what they do have going for them is they create turnovers. And much like your nearest bakery, Detroit likes serving them up lately. Eagles haven’t been great at home this year though, winning only 2 of 6 at Lincoln Financial Field this year. I’m going to go with the stats on this one, Lions over Eagles by 3. Dolphins at Steelers: These teams are very closely matched statistically speaking. That brings us down to turn overs and QB performance. I like Tannehill to take better care of the ball in Pittsburg. Historically this competition hasn’t gone well for the Dolphins over the past decade or so, they’ve been blanked in five total meetings. I still like the Dolphins to win this one; they’ve pretty decent on the road this year. It seems that little offensive line fiasco hasn’t really affected the team that much. If anything, I think they’ve played a little better since the media stopped dwelling on it. Dolphins over Steelers by 2. Bills at Buccaneers: Offensively the Bills have the edge. Over the past several games the quality of play on the Bills part has been very lack luster. Too many mistakes and turnovers have cost the Bills some wins recently. I don’t see that trend changing this week. The Bucs though have looked pretty solid. They aren’t the caliber to beat the Panthers but the Bucs should easily best the Bills in Tampa Bay. They haven’t made a lot of mistakes with the exception of having way more penalty yards against them than any team should ever have. The key to this game for the Bucs is to play smart and don’t take penalites that can easily be avoided. Bucs over Bills by 10. Chiefs at Redskins: Like lambs to the slaughter, so goes the Redskins in this match up. With a different team, of even just a new offensive line, RGIII might be able to do something against this Chiefs team. But, that is not the case. The Chiefs still have one of the best defenses in the league and I think they’ll easily be able to flex that might against this nearly-nonexistent Washington offense. The Chief’s offense should easily be able to control this ball for most of the game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Washington go maybe 20% on 3rd down conversions in this game. Kansas City is a solid team and it’s going to take a spectacular performance on the Redskins part to make a game of this one. Chiefs over Redskins by 10. Vikings at Ravens: While the Ravens haven’t been stellar they’re better than the Vikings this season in most categories. Baltimore allows almost 100 yards less offense than Minnesota per game. Minnesota on the other hand has a better offensive output, but not but a lot. If it wasn’t for the Vikings running game they’d have no game. I think this is one you could put some of you bigger confidence points on this week, Ravens over Vikings by 14. |
Titans at Broncos: With or without the defensemen that are injured for the Broncos, their chances of beating this Tennessee team are pretty good. Manning, as I’ve likely said before, could go grab a bunch of dudes off the street and put together a solid offensive showing. The Titans are okay, but they just don’t have what it takes to hang with the offensive output of Denver. Broncos over Titans by 14.
Rams at Cardinals: I don’t see this going well for the Rams. The Cards are 5-1 at home this season and the Rams, well…they are not even .500 on the road. Arizona has the clear defensive edge and it seems that defense plays even better at home. The Rams are giving the field away left and right this season, this should play right into Palmers hands. Cardinals over Rams by a touchdown. Giants at Chargers: So the Giants are 2-4 on the road and the Chargers are 2-3 at home. This makes for a crap shoot, in my opinion. The Giants are trying to keep a small glimmer of hope alive. It’s very likely they’ll be able to achieve this by handing this beat down Chargers team another loss. This game has me not wanting to wager a lot of confidence points on it, mostly because it’s going to be a comedy of errors. These teams haven’t taken care of the ball very well this year. Manning through the first six game was intercepted 15 times in that stretch. He’s turned it around a little but I still wouldn’t call the recent performances stellar. I like the Giants over the Chargers by 3. Seahawks at 49ers: Well according to their record the Seahawks are the best team in the NFC. They certainly reinforced that Monday night vs. the Saints. But are they good enough to go to San Fran and repeat that performance? This is another one of those crap-shoot games. One would have thought that Seattle’s defense would have suffered with the loss of two cornerbacks to illegal substance suspensions, but if anything they were better. I think they’ll keep that train rolling right on down to Candlestick and pick apart Kaepernick’s game pretty bad. Seattle pressure Brees so bad it wasn’t funny. They crappy weather could have had a little to do with it, but I’ve seen Brees play in crap weather before and come out on top. So with that said, I like the Seahawks over the 49ers by 5. Panthers at Saints: This is going to be a great match up. The Panthers are like a steam roller, running over everyone in their path. The Saints on the flip side are a strong home team, not losing one all season in the Superdome. One might say there’s almost something magical about the Saints offense at home, kind of like the second half comebacks of the Patriots. However, this Panthers defense is locked, loaded and ready to travel. New Orleans offense puts up almost 400 yards average per game. The Panthers’ defense has held opponent offense this year to less than 300 yards per game. This is going to be a hard fought battle, might even be a shootout. All things considered I like the Panthers over the Saints by 1. Cowboys at Bears: After the Bears inability to squelch the Vikings last week in overtime, I see them having a more difficult time trying to keep up with the Cowboys regardless of where they’re playing. Obviously the cold of the Chicago night will be a challenge for Romo and company, but the Bears are in such disarray right now the Cowboys only really have to play kind of decent to pull out a win here. The Cowboys’ defense just needs to make a good showing the Romo will run away with the spoon here. Cowboys over Bears by 10. |
CHESHIRE TOMLIN
By: Jason Simpson
Why does it seem to be one non-sense action after another in the NFL this year? We've had bullying, temper tantrums, and now out right cheating on the part of a coach.
This has to be out right cheating, too many things about it don't make sense.
First no one else on that sideline was standing in the white. I know that when I'm standing on the sideline of something and everyone else is behind I feel out of place and that maybe I am out of place.
Second he wasn't watching the play. He was looking at the opposite end zone when the ball was caught and the player began to run back with the ball. What coach doesn't pay attention to the play currently going on?
Third was the after the fact video footage of him smiling like the Cheshire Cat from Alice in Wonderland. He clearly understood what he did and I believe based on his actions during and after that he planned to do this.
By: Jason Simpson
Why does it seem to be one non-sense action after another in the NFL this year? We've had bullying, temper tantrums, and now out right cheating on the part of a coach.
This has to be out right cheating, too many things about it don't make sense.
First no one else on that sideline was standing in the white. I know that when I'm standing on the sideline of something and everyone else is behind I feel out of place and that maybe I am out of place.
Second he wasn't watching the play. He was looking at the opposite end zone when the ball was caught and the player began to run back with the ball. What coach doesn't pay attention to the play currently going on?
Third was the after the fact video footage of him smiling like the Cheshire Cat from Alice in Wonderland. He clearly understood what he did and I believe based on his actions during and after that he planned to do this.
Pick week 11/28-12/2By: Jason Simpson
I use to look forward to Thanksgiving for a lot of reasons that weren't football. When I was a young kid it was about family and seeing relatives I hadn't seen in several months or so. Now, distance and expense has stifled the family get-togethers. But, I now look forward to a day of great food put together by my wife and the Detroit Lions. It’s a tradition at least twice as old as I am. Regardless of a win or loss, I still enjoy the commentary, the multi-limbed turkey and the fun fox provides for this yearly tradition. So from me and mine to you and yours have a happy turkey day and enjoy the football. Packers at Lions: Some interesting facts about the Lions on Thanksgiving: first they have played the Packers the most on this occasion with 20 meetings in Detroit. In those 20 meetings Detroit has gone 11-8-1 against the Pack. However, the last time they got a win on Thanksgiving was 2003 when CB Dré Bly picked off Brett Favre twice. The leading scorer of the game was K Jason Hanson with 15 points in field goals. The Lions overall record on Thanksgiving isn’t stellar at 33-37-2. This is a hard game to call this year. Reasons: Stafford since the onset of his career has sucked it up in November and against the Pack; fact is since he’s been quarter back they have only one win against Green Bay. When Stafford was injured and Drew Stanton was QB the Lions were able to squeak out a 7-3 victory on December 12, 2010. It was one of the most boring games between these two clubs with no points being scored in the first half. Green Bay has a very slight edge on both sides of the ball in this match up. And the last time Matt Flynn went up against Detroit it was a slaughter. However, this is a vastly different Detroit defense and a different Matt Flynn than we saw at the helm of the Packers a couple years ago. The Lions defense is going to be key; if they shut the running game down like they’ve been doing and guard a little better over the middle for mid-range passes they’ll win this one easy. Lions over Packers in a close one.
Raiders at Cowboys: For this match-up I’m going by the numbers. Dallas is 28-16-1 on Thanksgiving Day. They are currently 6-5 and 4-1 at home on the season. The Raiders are not a good road team this year at 1-4. While the Raiders are playing okay the past couple weeks, the Cowboys performance last week against the Giants was outstanding. Romo is on his game right now. I take Cowboys over Raiders by 10. Steelers at Ravens: The analysts are all talking about how the Ravens can’t seem to get a running game going this season. But what they failed to mention was neither have the Steelers. When it comes to running the ball both teams averages are sub 90 yards per game. Baltimore’s ability to guard against the run is a little better than Pittsburgh’s. Pittsburgh has the slight edge in match-ups going back 12 years at 16-12, but they are in Baltimore this week and the Steelers aren’t great on the road this year at 2-4. I’ll take Ravens over Steelers by a touchdown. Jaguars at Browns: So in all stats the Browns have the clear advantage. But, over the past six weeks Weeden and company have played like…well…poo. One win in six attempts is not great and to boot, out of those five losses, three of them have been at home. Jacksonville on the other hand doesn’t fit the profile of a 2-9 team. If you look at their past two performances they look more like what a 9-2 team should look like. Cleveland is in a slump; Jacksonville really doesn’t have anything to lose so why not play hard and be a spoiler for everyone else. Jaguars over Browns in an upset. Titans at Colts: It’s not good business in the NFL to play by the win one/lose won philosophy. Apparently Indy hasn’t gotten that message. However, this week, after the spanking they got from Arizona, they do for that win one. Looking at this Titans team, it’s likely that the Colts will take this one. Offensively Indy has an ever-so-slight edge. Defensively the Titans are by far better getting up 60 less yards per game. Indy also beat the Titans two weeks ago in a close one at Tennessee. Colts over Titans in Indy by 10. |
Bears at Vikings: Vikings check list: running game? Check. Passing game? So-so, but check. Defense? Well it shows up but doesn’t do a lot considering they allow over 400 yards per game on the average. Bears check list: Passing game? Check-ish. Running game? Better than the Ravens… Defense? A Quarter of a field better than the Vikings. So it’s another case of the mediocre playing the mediocre. Last week was a disappointing showing by the Vikings. The struggling Packers should have been an easy win for the Vikes. In Minnesota’s defense, when the weather turns to poo in Green Bay, no one plays very well there except for Green Bay. It’s caused ice to form in their veins and increased the Packers ability to play in the worse possible conditions. The Bears are a similar team in that they play well outside, on real turf and in some of the crappiest conditions you could imagine for football. But, put them in a dome and they don’t fare well. Look at how they played in Detroit earlier this season, in case you forgot, they got spanked. I think the Vikings will find a way to exploit the holes in the Bears run defense and Petersen will take it to the house a couple times in this game. I’m going Vikings over Bears.
Dolphins at Jets: On both sides of the ball the Jets have the edge. Geno Smith is having trouble lately though. He could look like a star after this game though by utilizing the running game they seem to have. They’ve averaged 127 yards rushing per game this season, this is eighth best in the NFL and on the other side of the ball they’re currently ranked as the number one rush defense. Miami defense is ranked 26th in the NFL for yards allowed. But yards are just that yards, not touchdowns. They Jets could come out of this one victors if they can keep from turning the ball over. The Jets running game should be able to blow through the open door of a defensive frontline Miami has. Jets over Miami. Cardinals at Eagles: Offensively the Eagles have the clear edge by almost 100 yards per game average. With the number running game in the NFL and Foles sitting at a passer rating of 128.0 and a completion percentage of almost 64%, Foles will likely be more than the Cardinals defense can handle on the road. Eagles need to step up the pass defense though; they’re ranked last in the NFL in this category. This is a big area of concern and could be exploited by the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards haven’t been playing well on the road though. I’ll take Eagles at home over the Cardinals. Buccaneers at Panthers: Bucs are have had a good streak here, but two of the three games have been close wins and one of those two is what I would consider to be a quality win; meaning a win over a team with a winning record. Carolinas running game and defense are going to be too much for this streaky Tampa Bay team. Newton is playing very solid right now, plus he has the ability to make things happen if he feels too pressured in the pocket. Glennon on the other hand is going to take the sack, he’s too inexperienced to deal with the heat this Carolina defense is going to bring. Playing at Carolina I pick Panthers over Buccaneers. Patriots at Texans: Easy one here, the Patriots overcome daunting odds to win in the second half. The Texans are playing for a first round draft pick QB at this point. The Patriots had no business winning the game against the Denver Broncos and yet, what did they do, made the Broncos look like the JV squad in the second half at Foxburough. Patriots over Texans by 20. |
Falcons and Bills in Toronto: The Bills are solid average team whom are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Falcons are a team that, well, can’t seem to put together a strong offensive drive let alone win a game. I think the Bills take it to the Falcons in Toronto this weekend. Bills over Falcons.
Rams at 49ers: Kaepernick in my mind, is a lot like Newton, he’ll make something happen if he can’t get a pass off. For that reason the Rams are going to have a hard time defensively, they’re not going to be able to rush Kaepernick as much for fear that he’ll take off for a big yardage runs. On top of the Kaepernick run threat, San Francisco has a good running game. The Rams just don’t have what it take to defend against this. The Rams are going to get worn out on defense because the 49ers will take care of the ball and own the clock. Which, if you spend most of the game with your defense on the field it’s hard to score. 49ers over Rams by 15. Broncos at Chiefs: Broncos need to score early and often in this game to seal the deal. Barring any more injuries than what they already have they’ll likely do that. They’re going to be hungry and distraught after the meltdown in New England. The Chiefs are suffering a few key injuries on defense which Denver will likely take full advantage of in this game. Broncos over Chiefs in close one, maybe three points.
Bengals at Chargers: I like the Chargers to win this one. After a big win over the Chiefs they’re feeling pretty good right now. Dalton isn’t playing well lately and it’s shown in two of the past three games. They took overtime losses to teams they should have beaten. On the other hand Rivers is playing well and I think that streak will continue at home. Chargers of Bengals. Giants at Redskins: I think the Giants could round up a bunch of dudes off the street and sack the crap out of RGIII in this game. I don’t know whether the offensive line is really that bad or they’re trying to send a message to Griffin, one thing is for sure he’s getting crap for pass protection. With the exception of last week, the Giants have been playing decent ball. I think they’ll bring that back this week. Giants over Redskins by 10. Saints at Seahawks: We saw what silly distractions did to Miami. Will it be here? Down two cornerbacks that leaves the deep pass pretty open for a guy who like to pass the ball, a guy like Drew Brees, who without coverage at these positions will score touchdowns like their going out of style. This happened to the Seahawks last year and it pretty much ended their Super Bowl drive. I think it’s going to take another toll on the team this year and for this game I think Drew Brees is going to have a fun time running up the score. Saints over Seahawks. |
Incognito grilled by glazer
Picks for week 11/21-11/25By: Jason Simpson
Saints at Falcons: This game should be an easy one to put a lot of confidence points on the Saints winning. New Orleans has the edge on both sides of the ball and in all categories: run offense and defense, pass offense and defense, the Falcons are out gunned and clearly one of the weakest teams in the NFC this season. Which, if you are a Falcons fan you’re wondering wtf is going on after the astounding season the Falcons had last year. Saints over Falcons by 15. Steelers at Browns: The past four games for the Browns are considerably lack luster for a team that looked very good defensively at the onset of the season. On the other side of this match up you have the worst Steelers team of the past decade. Yes the beat first place in the NFC north last week, actually Detroit gave that game away in the second half. So what are you left with here? The numbers suggest that the Steelers are better offensively, albeit by a small margin, but all the same a little better out put on the offensive side of the ball. However, Cleveland has the better stats on the defensive side of the ball. Historically the Steelers have the edge in this match up over the past 12 years at 22-3, one might call that fact a bit more than an edge. However, those wear vastly different teams through those years. Steelers were a running power house and the Browns…who were the Browns in the 2000s? Browns at home over the Steelers. Though I might not wager a lot of confidence points on this game because, well anything could happen in match up that is statistically as tight as this. Buccaneers at Lions: They same numbers don’t lie. It really depends on what numbers you’re looking at. One might take a look at this match up and say, “6-4 against 2-8, I’ll take 6-4”, however if you look at points scored over the past two games for both teams you have Tampa Bay outscoring their opponents 63-47 and on the Lions they technically were outscored 56-48. You can’t really compare passing because Glennon hasn’t played the full season, but you can compare ratings and percentages. Glennon’s overall rating for the season is 87.7, but in November his rating is 113.9 with almost 72% completion percentage. Stafford’s overall rating is 92.0 with not quite 60 percent on completions. So far in November Stafford is struggling with only completing 45% of his passes, most of those completions are to C. Johnson. So which team gets the edge in this match up? The one with wins at home? The one that’s turned up the heat the past two weeks? For my money I believe Detroit is still the safer bet here. It’s likely Schwartz won’t make the same mistake two weeks in a row…he might make new mistakes. Lions over Buccaneers. Vikings at Packers: If I would have made a prediction on this game three weeks ago I would have said without a doubt Packers of Vikings. Now, that’s whole different tale. While Tolzien is coming along this is not a solid Packers team as we saw last week against the Giants. On the other side of the token, the Vikings have been playing a little more solid the past couple weeks. Yes the got beat pretty bad in Seattle, but they did manage to put up 20 points against one of the best teams in the NFL in Seattle’s house. That’s saying a little something for the Vikings ability to focus as this point. For this match up as it stands with the starters taken into consideration I have to go Vikings over Packers in a close one. |
Chargers at Chiefs: Kansas City is playing some decent football this year, though it wasn’t surprising they lost in Denver. Playing in Denver this year, just like playing in KC, is similar to hopping in the clay pot that contains the proverbial cobra, your chances of winning that fight are slim. Rivers though, statistically is having a better year than Smith. I think the discrepancy is coming from the style of football the Chiefs are playing this year. They’re playing a very ground-game centric offense this year; which does two things: makes games shorter because it keeps the clock running and because the game is ‘shorter’ the score doesn’t get run up on either side. This style of football is difficult for a passing kind of team like San Diego to cope with because they don’t have the ground game to return the favor. I see the Chiefs over the Chargers in a game where the Chiefs likely have control of the ball for almost 40 minutes of the game clock.
Bears at Rams: Offensively with McCown the Bears look pretty good against this struggling Rams team. Defensively these teams are pretty close in yards given up. A couple turnovers in favor of Chicago and this one is another feather in the cap of the 3-0 Josh McCown. Which will likely be the case in this match up as really the only thing the Rams have going for them lately is a okay defense. Bears over Rams. Panthers at Dolphins: After watching Cam Newton work his magic over the past few weeks, especially after defeating the Patriots, I see this team going deep into the season. The Miami Dolphins will be another casualty of the Cam express to the playoffs. If Newton could settle down in the pocket for a min, he could have one of the best passing games of his career against this mediocre Miami defense. But, Cam is Cam and I look for him to have nearly a hundred yards of rushing by himself. Panthers over Dolphins in a slaughter. Jets at Ravens: While numbers don’t lie in this match up they don’t really tell us much useful except the teams that they’ve both played to this point have been able to march down the field on them with no problem. The Ravens allow an average of 340 yards per game while the Jets are a little better at 324. If that number was a little more evenly dispersed for the Jets I’d say this would end up being a close game, however, Flacco and his receivers are averaging 225 yards gained per game. The Jets are allowing that many, plus a few, passing yards per game. Flacco will have his way with this Jets defensive back field. Ravens over Jets, I’d guess by a touchdown. Jaguars at Texans: The Texans have the edge by an average of 100 yards on both sides of the ball in this match up. On the other hand, the Jags did squeak out a win against the Titans, a team that seems by far stronger this year than the Texans. For whatever reason the Texans can’t buy a win. The Texans have penalty problems, last week they had 9 penalties for 50 yards. Throughout the course of the game they lost half a field to things that just shouldn’t happen. I think this is the biggest reason they’re losing games. If they can’t get this under control their season is going to continue to spiral out of control. While the Texans on paper are a stronger team, I think this will be the upset of the week. Jaguars over Texans in a close one. |
Titans at Raiders: Both these teams give up a lot of yards per game. I think it’s going to be a matter of who can take care of the ball better and which defense will perform the best. Looking back at who these teams have beaten so far this season I would say the more quality wins have come from Oakland and they have the edge offensively so I’m going with the Raiders over Titans.
Colts at Cardinals: Indy has a problem on defense they could seem to stop the ball from going down the field if it had a 50lb lead weight attached to it. Thankfully, Andrew Luck is able to pick up the slack and throw for an average of almost 240 yards per game. On the other hand, the Arizona defense is pretty solid. The Cardinals defense is actually one of the best in the league at shutting down the run. This really isn’t a concern for the Colts though, since they’re a pass first kind of team. I look for Luck to have 3-4 TD passes in this game. Palmer may have his hands full with trying to complete passes since Indy allows about 240 yards per game passing. It’s going to be a shootout between these teams ending with Colts over the Cardinals by a TD. Cowboys at Giants: The Giants seem to have their groove on and the Cowboys are coming off a buy week. I don’t see this as being a strong performance week from the Cowboys. I think the Boys go to NY and find out that the good salsa maybe does come from “New York City!” While Manning doesn’t look like hall of fame material, he’s got his offense clicking pretty well right now. Giants over Cowboys by 10. Broncos at Patriots: Patriots are a tougher team than what they’ve been made out to be this year. Though, Brady has had some trouble developing relationships with his receivers this year. He looked pretty good against Carolina, controversial-game-ending referee calls aside. Manning on the other hand is come of QB messiah; you could give him a bunch of high school wide-receivers and he’s going to find a way to get them the ball and ultimately pull off a win. I don’t think I’ve seen a QB and his offensive weapons mesh this well since Elway and Montana played. Ultimately in this matchup I think the Denver offense is going to be too much for Brady to keep up with. Broncos over Patriots. 49ers at Redskins: The Redskins defense allow almost as many yards as the offense is able to garner each game. Which you could say well that really great offense when you talking about getting nearly 420 yards on average per game. But if you can’t stop your opponent from scoring, you cannot win football games. RGIII is definitely doing his part. The defense just needs to step up and do their part. You can’t allow teams to get nearly 400 yards of offense against you and expect to hang in your division let alone conference. The 49ers with Kaepernick under center are solid, likely too solid for the Redskins defense to corral. Regardless of what Griffin is able to accomplish this game I see 49ers over the Redskins. |
PICK WEEK 11/14-11/18
By: Jason Simpson Well last week we saw a couple shockers. Who would have thought that both Tampa Bay and Jacksonville would end their losing streaks in the same week. And let's not forget the Colts Luck running out in one of the worse butt kickings we've seen this year. I think this week is going to be a little more of the same, teams you think should win are going to lose...bad...at home in some cases. Colts at Titans: Division rivals, upsets of the week and teams looking to try and get into the playoffs: things the Colts and Titans have incoming. What they don’t have in common is a stellar offense. While the colts got a good spanking from a team that, well let’s face it, is less than amazing this year; Indianapolis is heading down to Tennessee looking for blood and vindication. Tennessee has a pretty good defense but they likely don’t have a chance if Luck and company are on their A game. Colts over Titans by 10 give or take. Jets at Bills: Offensively these teams are almost dead even except in rushing Buffalo has a slight edge in this department. However, the Jets ability to stop the run game this year is uncanny. They’ve allowed an average of 74 yards rushing per game. The Jets have struggled finishing games this season, but this team definitely works as a unit. If Geno Smith can stay patient in the pocket and scramble when needed, he and Coach Ryan can lead this team to an easy victory in Buffalo. Jets over Bills likely by a couple touchdowns. Browns at Bengals: It’s hard to call this a road game for the Browns since it’s just under a four hour drive for them. And honestly won’t there be as many Browns jerseys in the stands as Bengals, I’d like to think so. As for the teams, Dalton has sucked it up over the past two games. Those sports stations like to categorize teams at this point in the season as contenders or pretenders. I think the Bengals are pretenders at this point. Maybe it’s just some miss communication, but it’s hard to explain away the last two losses for the Bengals offense. Miami and Baltimore are not great teams this year, hell they’re not really even mediocre. I think the Browns go to Cincinnati and cause another upset. Browns over Bengals by a touchdown. Redskins at Eagles: It seems hard to imagine that a team could be .500 and not have at least one win at home. Well that’s exactly what the Eagles are this year. On the road they’ve been superstars at home they look like the JV squad at a class C high school. Foles is coming in to his own as the starting QB for Philly as of late. Will that make a difference…? Foles likes to pass run later, though you would never know it looking at how badly the picked apart Green Bay last week running straight up the gut. RGIII and company are coming hungry though after the spanking they took in Minnesota last Thursday. Redskins in a close one over the Eagles. Philly can’t seem to seal the deal at home. Falcons at Buccaneers: Has the offense of the Bucs actually started to mesh? A little, they were close with the Seahawks two weeks ago, but let that slip in the last third of the game. This past week they almost let it slip away to Miami. To Miami’s credit they are dealing with some distractions right now with the bullying thing that still seems to be hanging over their heads. I think that’s going to continue to plague them this week. If the Bucs keep their excitement of their first win in check here, I think they’ll get themselves a win over this sad looking Atlanta Falcons team. A side note: Greg Schiano, the Bucs coach, needs this win and about six more to keep his head off the chopping block. The team is starting to mesh well with Glennon at the helm. Buccaneers over Falcons. |
Lions at Steelers: This Detroit team has clearly shown it’s a force to be reckoned with. Two weeks, two close wins by the Lions. What was the key to those wins, playing smart: eliminating as many stupid yardage costing penalties as possible, rotating between Bush and Bell often, and hitting C. Johnson with the long ball. Let’s not forget the continuous pressure the Lions defense has been putting on opponent QBs this year. They only place they've really struggled is stopping the run. Against this struggling Pittsburgh offense they shouldn't have a problem though. Look for Big Ben to have a face full of Suh every other play. This Pittsburgh team looks like the Lions did through the majority of the 2000s, sad. Lions over Steelers by 10.
Cardinals at Jaguars: Last week’s freak win over Titans is just that. Jacksonville allows an average of almost 390 yards of opponent offense per game. You cannot expect to win games when you let the other team walk through the door, wipe their feet on the mat and say thanks for the touchdowns. Jacksonville really needs to step up to the plate on both sides of the ball. To have a prayer for the rest of the season they probably need to average an extra 100 yards of offense and convert for touchdowns in the red zone. They’re just not doing that and so I pick Cardinals over Jaguars.
Raiders at Texans: It’s hard to win games when you leading rusher is your QB. This seems to be the ongoing story for the Raiders this season. Pryor has other issues to deal with as well when in the pocket, he’s got to check left and right to make sure the guards haven’t left the gate open for the invading defensive line to come have their way with him. He’s spending more time trying not to get sacked than looking down field to see who is open. While the Texans have a slightly less impressive record, one less win than the Raiders and that’s not saying much, their defense is pretty solid. The defense has 21 sacks for the year, which is pretty good. The offensive line on the other hand has allowed its QB to be sacked 26 times. It’s hard for a QB to settle down and make plays when they’re worried about which linebacker is coming to take his head off. With all that said: Texans over Raiders by 3 points or so. |
Packers at Giants: If all is true about Tolzien starting for Green Bay against the Giants, I look for the Giants defensive line to pressure that poor kid out of cleats. The Pack would have a better chance of winning this game starting Flynn. Though, if you are a Packer fan you might hope Tolzien gets hurt just enough to come out of the game. Flynn is by far a more experienced QB and has what it takes to overcome the Giants defense. But, I don’t think that scenario will play out and I don’t think he’s settled enough to handle what the Giants are capable of throwing at him. The Giants on the other hand need to give Manning some protection so he has time to find the open man. This game for me is a mess playing a mess. I pick the home team mess to win this one: Giants over Packers by 10.
Vikings at Seahawks: The road to the Super Bowl in the NFC is going to likely go through Seattle or be Seattle, at 9-1 they’re the team to beat. The Vikings haven’t had enough time with one QB behind the wheel to develop any kind of flow. The Seahawks will likely out play the Vikings in every aspect of this game. There’s also the issue of this venue being one of the loudest in the NFL, which could also cause Minnesota issues on offense. The Vikings only hope is Peterson, but I don’t see that maturing into much because the Seahawks are allowing just over a hundred yards per game rushing. Look for Seattle’s defense to shut the Vikings down bad while Wilson has his way with the Vikings defense. Seahawks over Vikings. Chiefs at Broncos: These are two heavy pass dependent teams, especially Denver. But with Manning hurt I think they’ll have to be more conservative and keep it on the ground so that it takes the target off Manning a little. Neither of these teams give up a lot of rushing yards which is going to make it interesting. The clock is going to run longer and thus make the game shorter. That’s not Denver’s still of football. Denver likes to pass to the outside, stop the clock and have plenty of time to run up the score on their opponents. The Chiefs aren’t going to let Denver do that to them in this game. Denver will likely have the edge just being at home. Broncos over Chiefs in a close low to medium scoring game.
Patriots at Panthers: Across the board in offensive output the Patriots take it. However in the defensive categories the Panthers are by far the stronger team. Tom Brady over the years has found ways to win games the Patriots should not have won, but I think Carolina’s defense at home with the help of the twelfth man is going to be detrimental to any scheme that Brady and Belichick think they have come up with. It’s going to be a great Monday Night football matchup. I think Newton has enough tricks up his sleeve to come out on top. Panthers over Patriots in a close game, a field goal at best. Ravens at Bears: Flacco and company still can’t seem to put together a solid performance. Though, I don’t see Chicago putting together a solid offensive performance either for this game. I do see the Bears defense making life difficult for the Ravens offense to get any kind of groove going. And just maybe that will be enough for the Bears to put a few points on the board. Bears over Ravens by a touchdown or less. Chargers at Dolphins: As previously mentioned there’s that whole fiasco with Martin and Incognito plaguing the Miami locker room. It’s a distraction and for athletes to play to their potential you have to limit distractions. Miami’s coach needs to put the smack down and call this team to order. If he can’t, fire him and get someone who can. That said, while the Dolphins defense has the edge statistically the Chargers offense is nearly 100 yards per game better than the Dolphins. Rivers and his offense should have no problem picking Miami’s defense apart both on the ground and in the air. Chargers over Dolphins.
49ers at Saints: When you talk about these two teams you start talking about how a win for one can affect the entire playoff picture for other teams in the NFC. The Lions fate in the playoffs could depend on the outcome of this game. Last week, the Saints made the Cowboys look silly and Carolina shut the 49ers down bad in a close one. Defensively these teams are a dead heat for yards given up with edge in pass defense going to New Orleans and the rush going to San Francisco. Offensively the Saints have been a power house average well over 400 yards per game and nearly 30 points per game. Saints at home over the 49ers in a shootout. |
pick week 11/7-11/11By: Jason Simpson
Well the real action this past week wasn’t on the field in Green Bay when Aaron Rodgers was taken out in the first drive, it was actually in a southern Wisconsin bar where a man and his wife settled a bet on the Monday night game outside the bar. From what I have come to understand, the bet was that if the Bears won, he could tase her. She agreed and recorded it on her phone. Apparently through the first two tasings, on her buttocks, she was laughing and having a good ole time. Apparently the third tasing in the thigh (didn’t say what part of the thigh) was crossing the line and proceeded to call the police. After reviewing the recording of the tasing that was taken on the woman’s phone, the officer decided there wasn’t enough evidence for a charge of battery. However the man was charged with felony possession of an electronic weapon. Redskins at Vikings: The Vikings make it very difficult to say anything good about them, with the exception of, ‘at least they have gotten close to winning a couple games.’ They have yet to win a game on American soil this season. That’s right their only win came in London. The Redskins on the other hand are only a small step above being the crème de toilette of the NFL. What’s worse is when you compare these teams you have to look at a minimum of two quarterbacks from each team. So you might as well try to compare 4 teams in a two team match up. For me, at this point in the season, it’s going to come down to yards…yards given up, yards gained and what part of the game those yards are coming from. The Vikings and Redskins defenses are ranked 29 and 30 in the NFL respectively, both with almost 400 yards per game average. After a perusal of both teams performance last week, I’m going with Redskins over Vikings in a close one. Why? RGIII has a better ability to fake and scramble for rushing yards than Ponder who is a ‘stay at home’ kind of QB. Seahawks at Falcons: Here’s another match up that comes down to yards, defensive yards really since these teams are very close when it comes to offensive output. Seattle’s defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL while Atlanta is ranked 21st; this doesn’t bode well for Atlanta. You also have two vastly different offensive teams here: Seattle likes to run first and ‘pass’ questions later. Matt Ryan is all about throwing the pig skin. Russell Wilson, the seemingly more patient QB, has the same amount of TDs as Matt Ryan on the season but 4 less interceptions thrown. Taking into consideration the defense along with the QB performance to this point: Seahawks over Falcons by a couple scores. Lions at Bears: Let’s take a little trip down the Lions W-L history-avenue in Chicago. In the past 12 years of matchups at Soldier Field Detroit has only won 2 times, the last time coming in 2007. Also over the past 12 seasons the Lions are one game under .500 coming off their bye. But, this is not the kind of Detroit team we’ve become accustom to seeing over the past decade. This Detroit team, skippered by Jim Schwartz, has the 3rd best offense and 2nd best in passing, behind the Denver Broncos in the NFL. Defensively these two teams are fairly evenly matched right down to the yard at 381 allowed per game. So with the Bears on a short week, Jay Cutler starting (in my opinion probably a questionable decision based on his injury from a few weeks ago) and the Lions likely to throw Nate Burleson in for a snap or two, I see Lions over Bears. Eagles at Packers: Under an Aaron Rodgers offense I wouldn’t hesitate to say GB for the win. However, that is not the case coming up this week. Who’s this Seneca Wallace fellow? Oh right, the Packers traded Flynn a couple seasons ago and were left with this guy. As of Wednesday Chip Kelly, Eagles head coach, still has not named a starting QB even after phenomenal performance by Nick Foles last week. Chip, this is a sign from the football gods, Vick has had his day, and it’s time to move forward with someone who can get the job done. Point is, with Rodgers gone, I see the Eagles winning this one by a couple scores no matter who’s in at QB for the Eagles. |
Jaguars at Titans: The Jags, like the Bucs, are still searching for their first win of the season; it’s likely not coming this week. The Titans are .500 after nine weeks and are looking to make a play-off push here. They are a good, solid average team. The fall into the middle of the pack in the AFC and will most likely be a spoiler for someone down the road this season, but that aside, they shouldn’t have any problem rolling over this Jacksonville team. Even if the Titans play like poo, this match-up will still likely be no contest. Tennessee’s passing game has almost as many yards as the entire Jaguar offense. The Titans mediocre defense will look like rock-stars against the Jaguar offense that can’t muster better than an average of 287 yards per game. Titans over Jaguars by 10.
Rams at Colts: Statistically speaking these teams aren’t far from each other in yards gained and yards allowed. However, Indy has managed to put more in the W column than St. Louis this year. The Colts have been able to do this because they have a crack crew of coaching staff that seem to always know all the right adjustments to shut down their opponents in the second half. Even if Indy gets down by a couple score in the first half, it’s not passed the capability of Luck and his offensive weapons to mount a mighty comeback. St. Louis is sporting the backup QB, who’s still trying to get his feet wet here. Colts over Rams by 10. Raiders at Giants: Oakland is suffering somewhere, it’s not clear where, but there is definitely a communication breakdown on that offense, and defense for that matter. The Eagles down right embarrassed the Raiders last week; yes they’ll be looking for redemption, and on paper offensively they look better than the Giants. But this Giants defense has gotten the lead out the two games before the bye; they should have no problem shutting down the Raiders offense. Giants over Raiders by a couple scores. Bills at Steelers: Offensive output between these two teams is nearly a dead heat. Defensively the Steelers have the edge, just barely though. Last week’s loss to New England struck a pretty hard blow at this Pittsburg team. However, the Steelers have been pretty decent against rookie QBs over the past few years. While it may be by the narrowest of margins I see Steelers over Bills in Pittsburg by a field goal give or take a couple. Bengals at Ravens: What is wrong with the defending Super Bowl champs? Did too many key people leave? Is Flacco distracted by outside issues? Whatever it is it’s been plaguing this team all season and its likely not to be cured over the course of one week. Number Fire has the Bengals over the Ravens by a little more than a five point margin. I think this might be an understatement for this Bengals team. Cincinnati’s defense keeping yards allowed to a minimum. I think the Bengals over the Ravens by a greater margin than five points. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them win by a 10 to 14 point margin. |
Panthers at 49ers: I think this will be the upset game of the week. Everyone wants to side with San Francisco on this game because it’s a home game for them, statistically they edge out Carolina by a bit. However, Newton got his mojo running right now; he’s passing, he’s running, he’s faking defenders out of their shoes. This will likely be a shoot-out between these two young QBs, but I’m taking Carolina by a last-second game-winning field-goal kind of situation. Panthers over 49ers.
Texans at Cardinals: I think this game is going to come down to just one thing, the Texans ability to stop the blitz. I don’t think the Texans defense has it in them to get to Palmer. The Texans are a suffering team and they likely don’t have what it takes to overcome this Arizona team in Arizona. Watt might swat down a couple passes or get lucky and pick one off, because we all know that Carson Palmer likes to throw to the wrong team occasionally. Cardinals over Texans by less than a touchdown worth of points. Broncos at Chargers: San Diego can’t stop this train from rolling on through their stadium and taking a win with them. In all but one of their wins this season Denver has one by at least more than a touchdown. This one isn't tough to call; San Diego doesn’t have what it takes to shut P. Manning down, Broncos over Chargers by as much as three touchdowns. Cowboys at Saints: The Saints have been smoking opponents left and right. The Cowboys road loses have been relatively close ones with the exception of the San Diego game. When you look at Romo and Brees, Brees has more passing yards then Romo on fewer attempts. Romo has been kind of careless this year with his pass placement but so has Brees. They’ve both been picked off more than a hand full of times. The key is to this game is limiting the turn overs on each side and yards after the catch. It’ll be a shoot-out game; we know these boys like to pass. I think the deciding factor will be Brees ability to hit his receiver further down field than what Romo can do. Saints at home over the Cowboys by 10. Dolphins at Buccaneers: What a mess they have down there in Florida. I can see a situation where Tampa Bay’s defense is able to get to Tannehill very easily after Miami lost another one of the offensive linemen over the past week. Two new dudes protecting Tannehill on his blind side, I see this going badly. I think Tampa’s defense is going to exploit this line change to the fullest extent. All Freeman has to do this game is step up, make some plays and let his teammates help him get it in the end zone. Buccaneers over Dolphins in a squeaker on Monday football. |
Pick week 10/31-11/4
Well last week was a fairly predictable week. The only upset I suffered was Oakland beating Pittsburg. This week there are some tough ones to pick and some no brainers. So let’s get the week nine party started.
Bengals at Miami: Bengals are 6-2 and are making almost everyone they face look silly by the end of the game. They are a closer in this division and league for that matter. The defense is still a powerhouse of shutdown. The offense of Dalton needs some work, while he’s improving on the mid to long range passes, he’s going to need to step it up to beat the Dolphins secondary. If he doesn’t step it up, this will be a very long game of short yardage gains and hoping to convert on 3rd down for them. Regardless the Bengals have the stopping power to hold this struggling Miami offense to less than three scores for the game. Bengals over Miami by two scores. Chiefs at Bills: Not to down play Kansas City’s great defensive play, but, they haven’t exactly had the most difficult first half season schedule. In the coming weeks we’re going to see where the rubber meets the road for this team. This week, they’re almost guaranteed a win if they play solid football on both sides of the ball. I don’t see any signs in the past few games that they won’t. The Bills on the other hand are struggling as bad as Philly and St. Louis in the QB department. Chiefs over Bills by 14 give or take 3 points. Vikings at Cowboys: While Romo and company have been exactly stellar, they’re still a by far better team than Ponder/Freeman/(insert QB name here) and company. There’s really not much to say about this match up with the Vikings coming in second to last with yards allowed and points allowed per game. Cowboys of Vikings by a minimum of ten points. Titans at Rams: Both of these teams are giving up more yards than they’re getting per game. You can’t expect to win games like that. In this match-up with the QB problems that St. Louis is having I would expect Tennessee to win if they take care of the football. No turnovers for the Titans will equal a win here. Titans over Rams by ten or so. Saints at Jets: Who’s the QB for the Jets? Most people outside of their fan base likely couldn’t answer that question. It leads me to think just base on the QB performance of New Orleans that this should be one of those no brainers. If Brees can take care of the ball Saints pull out the easy win on the road. The spread on this game is like 7 points or so, I think the Saints over Jets by more like 10 or 12 points. |
Chargers at Redskins: RGIII is just not on it this year. His scrambling is bad. His completing percentage isn’t good and his on field decision making is a little questionable. Rivers on the other hand is a much better ‘in a pinch decision maker’ and it’s going to show in this game. I think the score is going to be a little more lop-sided than the predictions are calling. Chargers over Redskins by 10.
Falcons at Panthers: Offensively Newton and company have the edge here, especially over the past couple games. Carolina has the edge in this game on all fronts. They’ve also had a long week to rest and recoup after the Tampa Bay game last Thursday. Newton likes to run, the Falcons defense seems to be having trouble guarding against the run of any kind. I think Cam will exploit this coupled with some mid-range passes that will give Carolina the win here by 10 points or so. Panthers over Falcons. Eagles at Raiders: Philly is beat up behind Center. This isn’t they’re year to accomplish any great feats. They started the year with a good chance of doing something great this year, however the Eagles offensive line couldn’t protect their QB from a JV defensive pass rush. When your QB gets hurt that’s on the offensive front. You can’t expect to win if your QB doesn’t have the time or protection to get a pass off or even complete a hand off on a run play. Pryor on the other hand has been having a fairly okay season. He’s obviously the better QB in this match up and the Raiders offensive front can actually protect him. Raiders over Eagles by two scores. Buccaneers at Seahawks: With Sidney Rice (WR) out the Seahawks may struggle a little. However, not having Rice in this match probably won’t be that detrimental to the 0-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are struggling all over. It seems likely that the coach there has lost the confidence of the locker room. This Tampa Bay team is in rough shape. I would say they’re in worse shape, comparatively speaking that the 2008 0-16 Detroit Lions. The solid offensive play of the Seahawks coupled by the loud stadium atmosphere should surely put the Seahawks over the Buccaneers by at least 10 points. |
Ravens at Browns: Folks has such high hopes for this Baltimore team, especially after winning the Super Bowl. And the browns, well, they looked good to start the season. And they’ve played some good ball but usually figure out a way to lose games in the last quarter. They struggle from what Detroit struggled with for so many years; CCFC (can’t close for crap). They say the best defense is to be on offense, if the Browns took this to heart they might have a chance. This match-up is going to be like a couple old guys in a cane fight, whichever guy gets the last whack in before someone breaks them up will be the winner. The Browns will like be that winner, Browns over Ravens by a field goal.
Steelers at Patriots: As mediocre as the Patriots have been playing they’re still playing better than this awful Pittsburg team. The Steelers cannot seem to make anything click this season. Honestly, their two wins this season were probably flukes. Patriots over Steelers by at least ten; if New England can put together a good game it could be as much as 20 points margin of victory. Colts at Texans: The Colts are playing some good ball lately and frankly, the Texans are not. Houston’s defense is struggling and Schaub could turn the ball over on any given play. I feel like the odds of calling a turn over by the Texans are as good as trying to call the odds on a coin flip. Andrew Luck and company just need to play solid ball against this Houston defense. The Colts need to control the clock and the ball well and they’ll come out with the W in this contest. It’s pretty likely, Colts over Texans by 10 or so, especially since the Texans offense can’t seem to keep from spotting their opponents a touch down or two every now and then. Bears at Packers: The Pack might have a little trouble with the Bears defense. However, it Green Bay can keep the Chicago’s defense on the field eventually they’ll probably get too tired to care anymore and hand the Packers a relatively easy victory. The Bears don’t play well in Lambeau, come to think about no visiting team plays all that well in Lambeau. With or without Cutler I see the Bears losing this game by two touchdowns or so. Packers over Bears by a minimum of 14. |
Pick Week 10/24-10/28By: Jason Simpson
Well last week was a beautiful disaster on more fronts than just the picks. Upsets aside, there was a barrage of injuries in key positions, not that offensive and defensive lines aren't key positions. QBs, linebackers, and other scoring positions went down in droves. Injuries that are going to badly affect this next weeks picks, fantasy teams and last but not least, players careers are: Cushing with an LCL, Finley with a neck injury, Bradford with an ACL, Foles head injury and Wayne's ACL. All these have some serious repercussions for their careers going forward. Yes they're athletes and have the best doctors and trainers, but the older we get the slower bodies repair and those repairs the body makes aren't ever going to be good as new. Panthers at Buccaneers: As if the Bucs weren't hurting enough this year on offense they now are down running back Doug Martin with a shoulder injury and Rookie QB Glennon starting for his fourth career game I would be the odds on Thursday night's game that the Panthers will win pay less than a blackjack at a casino; and that's at the $5 dollar tables. While the Panthers are .500 and the Bucs are probably due for a win, I don't believe it's going to happen this week. The Panthers on both sides of the ball are going to be too much for a struggling Bucs team. The players should move for a vote of no confidence in Chancellor Schiano. When you're sitting at no wins for the season, that takes a toll on players psychologically; I'm not sure the Bucs as a team have much for confidence in themselves left. Panthers over Buccaneers by at least a margin of 10. Cowboys at Lions: For the first time in quite a while Detroit is actually favored to win this match up. Traditionally Dallas comes to town and beats up on Detroit. Keys to this game are going to be third down conversions on both sides of the ball. Dallas hasn't been great in this category either way. Detroit on the other hand has a 44% conversion rate on offense and a 30% conversion defense. Dallas on the defensive side is almost 10% worse and with Detroit's ability to convert on third down Dallas is going to struggle defensively against Detroit. If Dallas wants to have a chance to win this game, they need to not find themselves in a lot of third down and mid to long situations. Detroit needs to keep the pressure on Romo and guard against the run. Stafford needs to keep doing what he's doing, hitting his receivers for 20 plus yards per catch and keep Bush's and Bell's wheels turning every few plays or so. Detroit over Dallas, but by a small margin. Browns at Chiefs: While the Browns are having a pretty good year, the Chiefs, obviously, are having by far a better year than any other team in the NFL. I don't like the chances of the 3-4 Browns getting a win in KC. It's not going to happen. The fans are crazed, loud and disruptive to visiting teams. Not just that, but the Chiefs are a solid, healthy team right now. They have no injuries to speak of there which is rare this week. While they're not a Denver offense, scoring a ridiculous amount of points in any given week, they are solid and score enough to get the job done. KC players seem to believe in their new head coach, Andy Reid. The Chiefs over the Browns by a touchdown give or take. Dolphins at Patriots: Simply put Brandy and company are pissed over last Sunday's mishap on the field. I don't see them doing that again this week. With Miami the visiting team, I see the Dolphins loosing this one. New England over the past 12 years is 17-7 against Miami. Now I know you can't go by historical facts to predict the outcome on any given Sunday because anything can happen: Brady could get hurt, there could be a power outage, whatever, but I just don't feel that the Dolphins at 3-3 have what it takes to win this one this week. I see Patriots over Dolphins by double digits. Bills at Saints: Buffalo doesn't have a chance here. The Saints are too good this year. In virtually ever category New Orleans dwarfs the Bills. While these teams have only met 3 time in the past 12 years, the Saints have always come out on top and to boot have always held the Bills to single digit final scores. Saints over Bills by a minimum of two scores. |
Eagles at Giants: Can the Giants get another win on the season against the Philadelphia Eagles? I'll say yes. Why? There's another changing of the guard this week in Philly. Vick is likely to start this week which means possible communication break down. You can't win consistently when you have to switch QBs multiple times a season. While the Giants certainly have sucked it up this season, and the performance against the Vikings more like a comedy of errors, I think the Giants over Eagles by a min of a field goal. This game will also likely be a comedy of errors; look for Vick to defeat himself here by throwing some picks.
49ers at Jaguars: Jacksonville has a football team?! While San Francisco isn't the power house we all expected them to be this year, they're enough of one to go to Jacksonville and beat the snot out of the pathetic Jaguars. I'm not sure what's wrong down there, but you can be put some confidence points on the 49ers going down to Jacksonville and showing the Jags how football is played...just like the other seven teams have this year. 49ers over Jaguars by double 2-3 scores. Jets at Bengals: I think New York is in for a time of it with this Cincinnati team. The Bengals at 5-2 have are a solid team on both sides of the ball. Even with the injury of Leon Hall in the cornerback, I think the Bengals will easily be able to guard against the Jets mediocre offense. The Bengals also haven't been a slouch on the offensive side of the ball. They put up a decent amount of points against everyone they've faced this season. Bengals over Jets by 10 +-2. Steelers at Raiders: When your passer is also your leading rusher, you've got problems and Oakland is in that situation right now. The Steelers are struggling this year, that's evident. However, they're still looking pretty good next to the QB woe ridden Oakland Raiders. This game will likely be another comedy of errors this week only maybe not quite as funny. These teams are frustrated, when teams get frustrated players get hurt. I see Steelers over Raiders and some injuries in this game. I also think the Raiders are going to suffer the majority of those injuries. Redskins at Broncos: Last week was an emotion filled disaster for Manning. Don't look for that same disaster this week. Washington is hard up for another win this season...it's not happening this week. Denver's offensive output has been outstanding this season and...well...Washington's hasn't. I don't care how good RGIII is, the Denver defense is going to shut down whatever Washington throws at em. Then Manning will come on the field and spread some frosting on the cake in the form of touchdown passes. Broncos over Redskins by 20, that's right I said 20, at the very least. Falcons at Cardinals: In every category except wins-losses, Atlanta looks like the better team. And in the previous 7 match-ups the Falcons are 5-2. So one might say Atlanta for the win based on stats. I believe the opposite this week, I think at home the Cardinals are going to give Atlanta a run for their money and come out victorious. If Arizona can take the early lead, I think they'll hold it. But if they let Atlanta have any momentum at all, they're in trouble. Cardinals over Falcons by a score. Packers at Vikings: This will be an ugly game for the Vikings. They're in the same boat as the Bucs this year. Who's the leader of this ship in Minnesota? Even though Green Bay is riddled with injuries, they're offense is going to be more than the Vikings's defense will be able to contain. Not to mention the Vikings also have a new QB at the helm. Josh Freeman doesn't look comfortable just yet. I see some mistakes coming in this game brought on by miss-communication on the Vikings offense. Packers over Vikings. Seahawks at Rams: More trouble for a struggling Rams offense. Let's just call this season a wash for them. Seattle possibly has Harvin back and St. Louis has lost Sam Bradford at the helm. With Bradford gone and the Rams obviously not having confidence in their back up QB, their having tryouts for a new starter...this only spells trouble for the Rams and likely easy win for the Seahawks. The only way Seattle could lose this game is if the commit a boat load of penalties and basically beat themselves. Seahawks over Rams by a minimum of two scores. |
Pick week 10/17-10/21By: Jason Simpson
Seahawks at Cardinals: Historically Seattle has had trouble at Arizona. Why? Who knows...maybe because it doesn't rain there 320 days of the year. But then how do you explain the Seahawks winning in other cities...? What ever the reason is all stats this year, with the exception of passing yards, point toward Seattle ending it's losing streak in Arizona Thursday night. Defensively Seattle is by far stronger this year. I see Wilson and the Seahawks over the Cardinals by a close margin. Buccaneers at Falcons: Any other year of the past, say 5 years, one might say Atlanta at home without a doubt. However, the Falcons are only one win better than the Bucs, that's only one win period and that's not saying much. Both of these teams are suffering on both sides of the ball. However, these teams going into Sunday are tied 11-11 over their past 22 contests. While this year's stats point toward Atlanta being the better team, Tampa Bay has gone to Atlanta and upset the cart several times. I think they'll do it again this Sunday and get their first win of the season to boot. Bucs over Falcons by 3 +/- 2. Personally I'm not wagering a lot of confidence points on this outcome though, I might go as high as five, but certainly not double digits. Bengals at Lions: This will be a close match. If we look at the defensive lines, the Bengals edge out the Lions by a smidge. With that said, the Lions have been no slouch putting up points against some tough teams this year: I'd like to confidently tell my audience that Detroit will win this hands down, however every time the Lions get in a good place, they find some way to blow it and not just for a game or two, but for like the rest of the season. But having beaten the Browns and the Bears, a couple of the tougher teams in the NFL this year, I think the Bengals are beatable for the Lions. I'll go out on a limb and say Lions over Bengals by a touchdown, give or tack a field goal. The Lions have all the weapons, they just need a little more discipline. Typically when the the Lions lose, they don't get beaten by the other team, the beat themselves with turn-overs and penalty yards. Bills at Dolphins: The Bills running game is their biggest strength right now. However Miami's defense has done a good job this year of shutting down other teams run games. This is a tough game to call. Average points scored this two teams are nearly a dead heat. Points allowed the Dolphins have allowed an average of about a touch down less, that will most likely be the deciding factor here. Miami's defense are going to make it difficult for Buffalo to score more than a field goal on any given drive. Dolphins over Bills by a touchdown. |
Patriots at Jets: While the QB rating for Geno Smith of the Jets is slightly higher this week than Tom Brady's, the Jets' rookie is going to have difficulty with the New England's' defense. After coming out victorious over a very tough New Orleans team last week, Patriots over Jets by two scores if Tom Brady can just connect with his receivers.
Cowboys at Eagles: I think Romo and company are are frustrated with the start of this season. They're going to be looking for a win in Philly. Based on stats you wouldn't think they'd get one this week, but I'd throw my money on Dallas this week to put up a crazy amount of points vs the Eagles defense. I think it's going to be a shoot out, with Dallas winning by at least two scores. Cowboys over Eagles. Bears at Redskins: The Redskins are hurting this season and it's not going to get any better against the Chicago Bears. The Bears average points scored this season is a little more than a touchdown better than Washington's. That will most likely be the difference in this game. Chicago's defense will give a couple touchdowns this weekend, but Cutler is having a decent year this year and I think he's going to have no trouble picking the Redskins defense apart. Bears over Redskins by a touchdown. Rams at Panthers: With the exception of their records statistically Carolina is by far a better team on both sides of the ball this year. The Panthers are also on a high after scorching the Vikings pretty bad in Minnesota last week. I look for them to continue this rolling over the visiting Rams by two scores. Panthers over Rams. Chargers at Jaguars: I hate to say it, but the Jaguars are a pathetic mess this year. This game will be no different especially with Rivers playing some of the best football of his career over the past few weeks. As I said about last week's game vs Denver, it's not about who's going to win this one, but how many points the Chargers are going to put up against Jacksonville. Chargers over Jaguars by two touchdowns; while the Chargers will roll over the Jags, it won't be as many points scored as Denver did last week. 49ers at Titans: San Francisco can win this one as Tennessee has a key injury and some players displaying sporadic productiveness. Kaepernick is by far a better QB than what he's displaying this year. He's under a lot of pressure to perform like he did last season, but you have to be comfortable on the field to put up those kind of numbers. He doesn't look comfortable this season for whatever reason. Teams are pressuring him more this season and he's making some poor decisions about where he's going with the ball. With that said, he will play well enough to get a win this Sunday. 49ers over the Titans by a score if they can overcome whatever communication issues they're having lately. |
Browns at Packers: Green Bay is a tough team to beat at Lambeau, but, right now they are plagued with injuries. They're defensive line is badly beaten up, which was obvious about watching them just barely squeak out a win last week vs the struggling Baltimore Ravens. Cleveland is in pretty good shape right now and Weeden is playing some good ball. the Packers defense is going to have a tough time trying to corral them. I'll say Browns over Packers by ten give or take.
Texans at Chiefs: The undefeated Chiefs don't need help putting points on the board, but if the history made in recent weeks repeats itself, Houston will likely spot Kansas City a touch sometime in the first half. I look for KC to stifle every thing Houston tries to throw at them offensively and I see the Texans having a difficult time containing the Chiefs powerful offense. Chiefs over Texans in a massacre. Ravens at Steelers: I don't think it matters where these teams play, they're both struggling right now...the Steelers more so than the Ravens. If the Ravens offensive line steps it up a bit they they'll have a decent run game showing this week vs the less-then-stellar Steelers defense. I think the deference in this game will be yards after the catch. If the Ravens can get some yards after the catch in this game they will come out on top. I'll take Ravens over Steelers. Broncos at Colts: Well this will be an emotion filled game for Manning and the outcome is going to depend on where he puts those emotions. As good QBs do, I think Manning has a compartment for that stuff and come to Indy and put up a good showing. Indy is playing well and I think they'll be in this one for a while, however, Manning's offense will be too much for them. Broncos over Colts by a touchdown. Vikings at Giants: Well if Minnesota has a chance to get another win this year, here it is. The complete failure known as the New York Giants football team has yet to figure out how to even buy a win. It's going to come down to which defensive squad sucks the least; I think Minnesota's' will likely be the one that sucks the least, sorry New York. Vikings over Giants by a field goal give or take a couple points. |
Pick week 10/10-10/14By: Jason Simpson
Well last week I blew the picks pretty bad. Taught me a lesson: you can't bet on the stats, sometimes they lie and sometimes the dominating quarter back couldn't hit the broadside of a barn from the inside with a pass. And then you've got QBs that finally get their stuff together and have one of the best games of their careers. However, I will stick to my guns on stats because let's face it, occasionally a blind squirrel can find a nut. I'm sticking to my guns on stats, I'm kind of a figures don't lie and the law of averages will prevail kind of guy. Giants at Bears: I have to go with the Bears on this one. Why? It's going to come down to one thing, turnovers. What have the Giants been doing really well, not much except turning the ball over. What have the Bears been doing well, causing turnovers. If I had to guess the margin of victory, Bears over Giants, I would say two touchdowns give or take a field goal. Bills at Bengals: Well after the Bengals made the Patriots look really silly last week. I have to go with the Bengals over Bills. The Bengals defensive line is crazy good at getting to and disrupting the QB. To keep Tom Brady from scoring a touchdown, you have to be doing something right. If the Bengals defense plays like the did last week the Bills offensive line doesn't have a prayer of stopping them. I'd look for four of five good sacks by the Bengals defensive line. Lions at Browns: The deciding factors for this game will be can the Browns offensive line stop the Lions defense and will Megatron play. As of right now it looks like it's going to be a game time decision on the later. The Lions offense was a hurting unit without Calvin Johnson last week vs the Packers. Even if the Lions are without Johnson they still have a pretty good chance of winning a close contest here. Detroit's front four on defense are going to cause Weeden as much grief as possible. I'm looking for the Lions over Browns in a close one, a field goal might be the point difference. Raiders at Chiefs: I don't believe this will be a close one. Andy Reid has a fresh lease on life in KC and has turned the team in to a machine. The Raiders on the other hand have some issues on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are an alright team and would likely beat the Panthers or Jaguars, but I believe the Chiefs will be too much for them on both sides of the ball. Chiefs over Raiders by ten give or take a field goal. |
Panthers at Vikings: Well this one could one of two ways: either it's going to be a shootout with a lot of touchdowns scored both on the ground and in the air or if both defenses get their stuff together it might be a field goal shoot out. I'm going with Vikings over Panthers. If Matt Cassel gets the start, between him hitting receivers and Peterson on the ground, the Vikings are going to be a tough offense to stop.
Steelers at Jets: Well all stats including points for and points against would point to the Jets winning this one. However, the Steelers haven't won one yet this season, and I believe they're due. Then again this year's Steelers team could be the next 2008 Detroit Lions. Kind of a stretch but anything could happen. With that said, I think the Jets offense is going to be too much for the Steelers defense. Jets over Steelers at Jets in a close one, a touch down plus or minus a field goal. Eagles at Buccaneers: Yes the Eagles have the better record and yes the Bucs are rolling with a new QB. But, I feel like this might be the upset of the week right here. With Vick out for this game I believe the Bucs have a chance to put together a decent run in this game. I think it will be a close game, a field goal will probably be the margin of victory unless you get some silly stuff happening like a safety. Bucs over Jets at TB. Packers at Ravens: These are the kind of fun match ups that don't come along every season. I think it's going to be a tale of two defenses. One the can penetrate and get the Flacco and throw him off his game and one that won't touch Rodgers much at all. I think the quality of defensive play will be the deciding factor and it leans in favor of GB. Packers over Ravens in Baltimore. If I had to wager on a point difference, a touch down or less is what I'd go with. Rams at Texans: This will be another close game this week. If Schaub can go a whole game without throwing a pick-six the Texans might have this one. The teams are pretty evenly matched as far as points allowed and points for. I'm going Texans over Rams because of the home field advantage and the fact that Schaub got a good stern talking to this past week by some fans. Jaguars at Broncos: Denver over Jacksonville. This game is a question of who's going to win, but by home many points Denver will win by...I'll say Denver wins by a minimum of three touch downs. |
Titans at Seahawks: I'll take Seattle over Tennessee at Seattle. My Rational: it's going to come down to total yards gained. Seattle edges out Tennessee in both rushing and passing. I think come the end of the game your going to see the total yards difference at about 100 give or take a couple in favor of the Seahawks. That yardage difference will likely translate into a one touchdown margin of victory.
Saints at Patriots: Calling a winner for this game would be like calling a 7 and then rolling it in craps. Both teams historically are tough on both sides of the ball. However, this season it seems like Brady can't buy coverage, and he tried by giving up some salary. Brees on the other hand is 3-0 against Brady: twice with the Chargers and once with the Saints. I'd say the odds are stack, ever so slightly in the Saints favor. New Orleans over New England at Foxboro to give the Patriots, at least in recent times, a historical two losses in a row. Cardinals at 49ers: Even though both teams are 3-2, San Francisco has the edge in yards gained, yards allowed and points for per game average. Arizona will put up a pretty good defensive fight but in the end I see San Francisco over Arizona by a touch down. I think Kaepernick is probably going to have a decent game at home and the niners will likely win by a touch give or take a few points. Redskins at Cowboys: I think last weeks loss, after scoring 48 points, is a good wake up call to the Cowboys defense. If the 'boys defense has a good game Dallas wins at home by a fairly large margin. If they play mediocre I still think they'll win but only by a field goal or two. Dallas over Washington. Colts at Chargers: Rivers is hot right now. Yes, Luck is playing pretty well but I think the Chargers offense is going to score twice for every one Indianapolis score. The offensive yards put up by the Chargers lately has been phenomenal. Rivers might not have another 400 yard passing game but he'll likely pass for well over 300 yards. I see San Diego over Indianapolis by double digits come the end of this game. |
Pick week 10/3-10/7By: Jason Simpson
It's going to be Cleveland over Buffalo at the Browns. It'll be a close game but Cleveland's defense has been a brick wall this season allowing an average of fewer than 20 points per game as well as the fewest passing and rushing yards.
New Orleans at Chi-town: I think Chicago over New Orleans. The bears are at home and frustrated losing the Lions last week in Detroit. Their going to be coming out hungry for blood; New Orleans will have their hand full but will fall to the Bears. The margin of victory...less than 15. Lions at Packers: this is a tough one. The Packers aren't looking like the passing and rushing power house they've been over the past few years and the Lions are looking like the power house they haven't been for probably 50 years. I'm going against the grain on this one and pick Lions over Packers at Lambeau. Detroit has the total package this year, passing and rushing. If the Lions can keep stupid penalties to a minimum they'll likely come out on top of this one. KC Chiefs at Tennessee Titans: I have to go with the Chiefs over the Titans. The Titans suffered a crucial injury, Jake Locker is expected to be out 4-6 weeks. Chiefs seem very healthy and their defense has allowed and average of only 10.3 points per contest. Chiefs will likely dominate this game. Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts: Seahawks over Colts. While the Seahawks may have a slightly diminished because of injuries, their defense will likely not have a difficult time shutting down Luck and the Colts offense. Indy, it seems, is still kind of rebuilding since Manning left, and I think the solid 4-0 Seahawks will likely have their way with the Colts. |
Jacksonville at St. Louis: Even though the Rams offense is stinking it up this year, the Jaguars are stinking it up worse. The St. Louis Rams will get their second win of the season mostly because they will stink it up less than Jacksonville. Both of these teams are allowing a high amount of points per game to be scored on them. So this game is going to come down to how well the wide receivers and running-backs can play. Rams over Jaguars. Ravens at Dolphins: This will be a close match up. Miami is probably in the best place they've been in a decade; they're putting up some good numbers offensively and the defense is holding their own. The Ravens just are not showing the enthusiasm and spirit of the team they were last season. I'm not sure what it is, maybe they've become complacent after last year's season, but they're certainly not what we the fans expected of them this year. Both teams are fairly evenly matched as far as most of the numbers go. I think Dolphins over Ravens by a very small margin, Likely 3 points or less. In your pick 'ems leagues I wouldn't wager a lot of confidence points either way. Eagles at Giants: I think this is going to come down to which QB has the better game. As it stand Vick has the edge in the QB comparison: Vick has been picked off by far less than E. Manning and is a scrambler. Manning doesn't seem to like to stray from the pocket. I see the Eagles over Giants at NY. Don''t be surprised if the difference ends up being a rushing touch down by Vick. Panthers at Cardinals: All stats suggest with the exception of W-L record would suggest the Panthers as being the better team. Arizona actually has the better overall record however, going by the stats I'll say Panthers over Cardinals at Arizona. The Panthers defense will be more than the Cardinals offense is able to overcome. |
Broncos at Cowboys: Road or home it doesn't make a difference, the Broncos are on fire. The defenses are pretty close to even in the points allowed category however, when you compare the offense and points scored Denver is almost double Dallas. I pick Broncos over Cowboys and P. Manning to have another great game while Romo has a mediocre performance. Houston at San Francisco: On both sides of the ball these two teams are about about evenly matched as far as rushing yards go. Which leaves us with the passing game match up. Houston wins this match up on both sides of the ball having by far more yards in the air and allowing far less yards in the air. Based on these two QBs completion percentage and and yards passing I have to go with Texans over 49ers. Chargers at Raiders: Oakland has some QB issues. I don't feel like they've been able to build a strong foundation at the offensive helm this year having Pryor out last week and now back this week. As a team I don't feel like the Raiders are in sink. The Chargers team flow seems a little better. Looking at the numbers if San Diego's defense steps up their coverage this week, which I think they probably will, it'll be Chargers over Raiders. Jets at Falcons: Seemingly in almost every category these two teams negate each other. Passing for and allowed, rushing for and allowed they'll negate each other. I think feel two factors will come into play in this game: the twelfth man (Atalanta's fans) and the last team to score will win, it will not be a blow out, it will likely come down to winning by one score be that a touch down or field, it will likely be the last to score. Falcons over Jets. |